Why silicone exports have shrunk sharply, and silicone prices have fallen off the cliff in China???

In early May of this year, Trump announced on Twitter that "the import tariff will be imposed on Chinese goods by 25%." After that, the US government officially issued an announcement that it is scheduled to impose a 25% tariff on China's 200 billion goods on June 1. It is ridiculous that on May 31, the US government will "take consideration of customs enforcement factors" to levy the taxation date. It was postponed for half a month. This trade war has indeed had a relatively large impact on China's import and export of US goods. But in terms of organic silicon, this year's Sino-US trade war is less affected than last year. Today, based on the export data of silicones from January 2018 to April 2019 and the prices of various silicone products, the impact of trade warfare on silicone prices is analyzed through export conditions, and the reasons for the recent price dip are further analyzed.

Trends in exports of organic silicon from January 20 to April 2019

As early as last August, the US government raised the tariff on polysiloxanes in China's primary shape to 25%. From the customs export data, we can find that from August 2018, the export volume of primary shape polysiloxanes has dropped sharply. The export volume in October 2018 was only 37.8% before the tariff increase in July. From January to April this year, China's primary shape polysiloxane decreased by 31.3%, 37.4%, 22.6% and 59.5%, an average of 37.7%.

Price trend of various silicone products from January 20 to April 2019

From January 2018 to May 2019, the prices of various silicone products can be seen. After the tariff increase in August last year, the prices of various silicone products fell simultaneously. Since November last year, the price of silicone products has been in a downturn. Although prices have risen in March and April this year, prices have shrunk compared to the same period last year. In terms of the average decline in the first five months of 2019, the average decline of D4 and DMC was 35% and 37%, and the average decline of raw rubber and 107 glue was 35% and 36%. The rubber and dimethicone were respectively. The decline was 29% and 33%.

Summary of the year-on-year rise and fall of various silicone prices in January-May 2019

From the ups and downs, we can see that due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war in August last year, the prices of various silicone products in the first four months of this year have shrunk by about 30%. In early May this year, Trump announced another increase of 200 billion. After the tariff on US dollar products, the highest decline in silicone products in May was 49%, which was almost half of the decline, and the least-reduced rubber compound reached 39%. It can be seen from the rise and fall that the Sino-US trade war in May this year had an impact on the price of organic silicon, but the decline only accounted for half of last year. In August last year, the Sino-US trade war directly led to a 30% reduction in the price of silicone products. Without the impact of last year's trade war, the actual average price of silicones in Sino-US trade wars fell by 15% in May this year.
Last year, the price of trade fell sharply after the war, which is directly related to the inclusion of primary shape siloxanes in the scope of taxation; this year's taxation content is less related to silicone products, so the market price is also lower than the last time. Lighter. In fact, whether or not it is in the scope of taxation, as long as the trade war is over, it is not good for both parties. The decline in silicone prices is a very straightforward example. To this end, we also call for an early end of the trade war and let the market return to calm.

Recent organic silicon market:

1) The volume of exports to the United States has been reduced due to the impact of two trade wars, and the overseas market has shrunk;
2) High temperature in summer, the arrival of off-season demand, the demand of downstream manufacturers becomes smaller, and demand is sluggish;
3) The monomer plant starts high and the inventory is accumulated;
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