The overall concentration of
China's paper industry is relatively low, and the individual paper market is relatively
mature. China's paper industry was affected by the tightening of the second
phase of the environmental protection policy. From 2010 to 2015, the paper
industry eliminated a total of nearly 40 million tons of backward production
capacity. The effect of the industry's de-capacity was initially revealed, and
the growth rate of paper and board production and sales was released. Slowly,
industry supply and demand entered a period of weak balance.
Regional concentration is not
much different from previous years
According to the survey data of
the China Paper Association, in 1118 provinces (autonomous regions and
municipalities) in the eastern part of China, the paper and paperboard
production accounted for 74.2% of the national paper and paperboard production;
the central provinces accounted for 16.3% of the eight provinces (regions); The
proportion of 12 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the
region accounted for 9.5%.
Chart 1: Regional distribution of paper and board
production in 2018 (unit: 10,000 tons, %)
Item
|
2017
|
2018
|
||
Production （10,000 tons）
|
Proportion（%）
|
Production （10,000 tons）
|
Proportion（%）
|
|
Paper and board Annual
production
|
11130
|
100
|
10435
|
100
|
East Region
|
8332
|
74.9
|
7742
|
74.2
|
Central Region
|
1767
|
15.9
|
1697
|
16.3
|
West Region
|
1031
|
9.3
|
99
|
9.5
|
Source: China Paper Association,
In the province's pattern,
Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang are the main producing areas. In 2018, paper
and board production in Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Henan,
Hubei, Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guangxi, Hunan, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangxi,
Hainan and Liaoning provinces exceeded 1 million. Tons, the total output is
104.7 million tons, accounting for 96.28% of the total paper and board
production in the country.
Chart 2: The province of paper and paperboard output of
more than 1 million tons in 2018, (unit: 10,000 tons,%)
Province
|
2017
|
2018
|
Year
on year（%）
|
Guangdong
|
1885
|
1815
|
-3.71
|
Shandong
|
1875
|
1810
|
-3.47
|
Zhejiang
|
1711
|
1510
|
-11.75
|
Jiangsu
|
1253
|
1141
|
-8.94
|
Fujian
|
758
|
750
|
-1.06
|
Henan
|
568
|
490
|
-13.73
|
Hubei
|
267
|
325
|
21.72
|
Anhui
|
302
|
305
|
0.99
|
Chognqing
|
309
|
288
|
-6.8
|
Sichuan
|
221
|
245
|
10.86
|
Guangxi
|
251
|
240
|
-4.38
|
Hunan
|
290
|
235
|
-18.97
|
Tianjin
|
231
|
220
|
-4.76
|
Hebei
|
297
|
205
|
-30.98
|
Jiangxi
|
196
|
200
|
2.04
|
Hainan
|
173
|
166
|
-4.05
|
Liaoning
|
97
|
102
|
5.15
|
Total
|
10684
|
10047
|
-5.96
|
Source: China Paper Association,
From
the industry's overall production and sales data, after the environmental
protection policy since 2010, the CR10 of the paper industry gradually
increased from 28.70% in 2011 to 39.95% in 2017, while the US paper industry is
experiencing environmental protection legislation. After the industry mergers
and acquisitions, CR10 has reached about 90%.
Figure 3: China Paper Industry Cluster CR10 (Unit: %)
Source: China Paper Association,
According to
the CR4 data calculated according to the sales data disclosed by each company,
the four leading companies in Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, Sun
Paper, and Chenming Paper accounted for only 25.34% of the market share in
2017, while the United States In the paper industry, the CR4 was 24% in 1972,
and the CR4 in 1984 after 29 years of environmental protection legislation
reached 29%.
After
environmental protection to capacity, some small and medium-sized backward
production capacity was eliminated, the industry concentration has improved,
and as the industry leader gradually began to expand production capacity, the
forward-looking view that the paper industry concentration is expected to
further increase.
Figure
4: China Paper Industry Cluster CR10
From the
current stage of China's paper industry concentration and the industry's
leading capacity expansion, China's paper industry is currently in the middle
and late stages of industry de-capacity - the environmental protection
legislation will further phase out the backward production capacity of the
industry, and industry leaders who meet environmental standards will start to
expand production. Can increase market share.
Chart 5: 2019 papermaking faucet added capacity
Company
|
New capacity project
|
Expected production time
|
|
Waste paper system
Pulp system |
Nine Dragons
|
Quanzhou 350,000 Tons
|
2019Q2
|
Hebei Yongxin 500,000Tons Paper Board
|
2019Q2
|
||
Shenyang 600,000Tons Paper Board
|
2019Q2
|
||
Donguan 500,000Tons Paper Board
|
2019Q3
|
||
Lee &Man Paper
|
Vietnam 500,000Tons Paper Board
|
2019Q4
|
|
Pulp system
|
Sun Paper
|
Laos 400,000 tons of recycled pulp paper
|
2019Q3
|
Laos 800,000 tons of high-grade wrapping paper
|
2019Q3
|
||
Bohui Paper
|
Zibo 1st project 1000 Thousand Tons Boxboard
corrugated paper
|
2019Q4
|
|
Zibo 2nd project 500,000Tons Boxboard corrugated
paper
|
2020
|
Source: China Paper Association,
Figure 6: Top 10 enterprises in key papermaking
enterprises in 2018 (unit: 10,000 tons)
Company
|
2017
|
2018
|
Year on Year (%)
|
Nine Dragons
|
1313
|
1394
|
6.17%
|
Lee & man Paper
|
554.98
|
563.17
|
1.48%
|
Shanying Group
|
358
|
461
|
28.77%
|
Sun Paper
|
443.16
|
459.73
|
3.74%
|
Chenming Group
|
510.11
|
456.72
|
-10.47%
|
Huatai Group
|
313.17
|
313.64
|
0.15%
|
China Paper
|
280
|
290
|
3.57%
|
Ningbo Zhonghua Paper
|
228
|
252.11
|
10.57%
|
Jiangsu Longcheng Green Tech
|
209.53
|
220.97
|
5.46%
|
Jindong Paper
|
206.41
|
191
|
-7.47%
|
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